Is the U.S. Housing Market About to Break?

 Is the U.S. housing market about to collapse… or is the truth more complicated? 🤔

In this reaction video, Jaden reacts to Michael’s breakdown of the current U.S. housing market and the growing debate around buying vs renting. With headlines claiming the market is in “panic mode,” Jaden dives into the data, trends, and financial realities homeowners and buyers are facing right now.

We talk about record home purchase cancellations, declining buyer demand, and whether today’s market conditions are anything like the 2008 housing crash. Jaden also reacts to the claims about homeowners struggling with maintenance costs, the risks first-time buyers face, and why some experts now believe renting might actually be the smarter financial move in many markets.

Along the way, the conversation explores unexpected repair costs, layoffs impacting buyer confidence, Zillow’s updated price forecast, and why housing prices may be experiencing a slow shift instead of a sudden crash.

Is the housing market really collapsing… or are we just entering a different phase?

Watch as Jaden reacts, analyzes, and gives his take on what all of this could mean for buyers, renters, and investors in 2026.

Topics covered in this video:

Is the U.S. housing market collapsing?

Record home purchase cancellations

Why buyer demand is at historic lows

The real cost of owning a home

Renting vs buying in today’s market

Unexpected homeowner repair costs

Zillow’s latest housing forecast

Which markets are rising vs falling

Is housing still the best way to build wealth?

💬 What do you think?
Is it smarter to buy a home right now or keep renting? Let us know in the comments.

Original Video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO8_eAmtLPg&t=1121s 

📲 Interested in learning more about licensing or mentorship?
Connect with our team here: homeguys.com/yt

🔗 Connect With Us

Website:
https://www.homeguys.com/yt

Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/homeguys_usa/

Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61570489073765

YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqRZdKG4PO88XSeXOTet05A

TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@homeguys_usa

#RealEstate #BusinessGrowth #Entrepreneurship #Mentorship #RealEstateInvesting

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:11

On today's episode of the Home Guide Podcast.

SPEAKER_02 0:15

And a lot of real estate experts are saying this is the same pattern that we saw leading up to 2008.

SPEAKER_00 0:22

Kind of a group of guys on YouTube like Michael and um this brief venture, Nick Gurley, and a couple other guys that are I think people kind of call them the housing doomers. I think they got a lot of um traction in the last four or five years because the housing market was still overvalued and um negative content uh goes viral much better than positive content does. Enjoy the show. Hey guys, Jaden here today. Uh just coming at you with a uh reaction video. Um this guy, Michael Bordolano, I think his name is. He's out of Florida, Miami area, I think. Uh I follow him uh quite a bit. He's uh does a lot of walking around videos of Florida and talks about the market quite a bit. Um pretty interesting guy. He has a kind of a negative take on the market usually, um, but it's you know good information nonetheless. So we'll watch this. And um, this he says the home sellers hit the panic button. So let's see what he says about it.

SPEAKER_02 1:14

A lot of people are skeptical to call the current situation with the housing market a housing crash. And I think that simply just boils down to the fact that there are still many places where home prices are going up, but there's also a lot of places where prices are coming down. So compared to 2008, Americans are just not all on the same page. You know, back then, almost every single housing market kind of started dropping in unison. Whereas today, we've seen markets that have been going down for years and others that are still going up even in 2026. But make no mistake, whether you want to call it a crash or not, the housing market is collapsing, guys. It is in all-out panic mode right now. We just got the latest data for what's going on with home purchase agreements. And there were about 40,000 purchase agreements canceled in January, which is about 14% of all homes under contract. This is basically a record cancellation for January numbers, and that number is also up 13% year over year. This is the highest amount of cancellations in about a decade. And a lot of real estate experts are saying this is the same pattern that we saw leading up to 2008. I mean, how many different things do we have to see that mirror 2008 before people kind of get on the same page?

SPEAKER_00 2:43

So he's got a lot there. Um, Michael's been pretty negative on the housing market for a number of years. He lives in Florida, um, my I think in Miami area. Um so you know, Florida market is definitely different than the rest of the country. I live in Sarasota, Florida. Um, so take that with a grain of salt. Um, he's very negative on the market in general. He's been saying this kind of stuff for probably four or five years now. Um and some of it's some of it's true. The market is correcting. The market of Florida is correcting. Uh prices have been falling essentially since 2022 in Florida. Um, but they're not falling fast. They're falling a couple percent a year. Um, for the most part, in most areas of Florida, most um types of housing is is not crashing. I'd say it's you know, falling um single-digit percentages every year. It's like a slow motion crash. So if you look back, that were like an eight-year period, you're like, well, it would have corrected by quite a bit, but it took quite a while. So now I think one thing that people forget about like when they say 2008, uh, I was in real estate at that time and before that, and people forget like they were the everything crashed in 2008. But if you look at the actual data, um, like in Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, where our business is at, the uh the the market really shifted in like 2005. Uh 2005 is basically when it peaked, and to 2006, it kind of you know flatlined and then started coming down a little bit, getting softer, and foreclosures started happening in 2006 and 2007. Um, and then you started seeing this softening in 2006, 2007, and then 08. I think 2008 is everybody's uh conscious memory because of Lehman Brothers and bear insurance collapse in 2008, uh, and then there was all the bailouts and stuff. But the housing market was already going down before that. That's why those things happened, is because the market was going down, um, which triggered all the foreclosures and everything else that happened from it. So um that entire 08 thing really was like from 2006 through 2013, I would say. Uh it was about a seven-year correction. Um, so it did not happen in 2008. It was like seven years. So people, you know, this housing market doesn't move that fast. Um, but people like to like remember it like it did or whatever. And I think 08, you know, you probably had a pretty bigger drop in 08, maybe it was a 15% drop. We'd have to look at the numbers, but um, and we also had all those for closures that were hitting the market that was causing those massive drops, uh, which we don't have now. So right now you're just relying on house sellers that don't necessarily have to sell dropping their price at will. And people are stubborn and they don't, you know, they don't want to frequently, so it's really slow. So until someone has to sell or there's a foreclosure or something, um, the prices are just really slow to move down. Um, we are seeing in Minnesota, so I'm in Florida, the Florida market's been correcting for since 2022. So you know, we're on year five now or so, four or five. Um and in Minnesota, it's not corrected, it's actually gone up for the last four or five years. Like he's saying, some markets are up and some are now. And I think it's um even the last 12 months, it's up a little bit in Minnesota. Um, it's it's definitely a kind of a weak market, um, but prices are still inching upwards there because it's a little bit more affordable than other areas. So yeah, so interesting stuff. You said 14% cancellation rate. Um, we've seen cancellation rates like that in Florida um for the last five years, uh, 10% plus cancellation rates. So that's not new here, uh, but maybe it's new in the rest of the country. So it does say that you know people think the housing market's getting cheaper and weaker, so they're more likely to cancel a deal because they can just wait six months and get it cheaper. Um, so it is like it's kind of foreshadowing a people think the market's getting weaker. And I think as everybody starts to feel that way, the buyers start to pull back even more, and then the prices will start to correct more. So that's kind of what we're saying is that we might be on the on a shift here where it starts to move down a little bit more. Um, but again, you don't have a catalyst like foreclosures that's gonna really drive a crash. Um, the supply has to come from somewhere, and um the sellers, if sellers don't have to sell and they're really stubborn on pricing, it's not you know, it's hard to see a crash. Uh depends on how you how you define a crash, I guess. But another thing to note in Florida is you could say prices have crashed here. You could probably make that argument, but a lot of people that live here don't feel that way because when your house doubles in value in a year, basically in 18 months, and then it drops five or 10% a year for a couple years, it doesn't feel like a crash because it's still worth a lot more than what you bought it for five years ago. Um, so it doesn't, it's really not unless you bought it at the absolute peak and are selling now, which some people did, um, then you're probably feeling some pain. But um, that was essentially like a one and a half year period, 2021 to 2022, uh, where it was really overpriced. Um, so as long as you don't buy in those years, you're probably fine. So anyway, let's watch the more of this video.

SPEAKER_02 7:46

Well, honestly, I don't think anybody's ever going to be on the same page entirely just because that's the state of America now, right? Everybody wants to have a different opinion, whether it's about politics, whether it's about real estate, whether it's about the economy. People just want to be right, okay? And they just want to stick with their side and they want their side and their team to win. No one even cares about facts anymore. They just care about their team winning. But I care about the facts, and I would assume a lot of people who still watch my channel do as well. And that's why we need to take a look at the facts. And the facts are that a lot of buyers are pulling out of these deals at the last minute. First time buyers are especially vulnerable right now because they don't have any experience, right? So the first thing that comes along that can spook them, they're gonna be out. And then you have a lot of buyers second guessing their purchase due to all the economic uncertainty. I mean, you have to be rock solid right now.

SPEAKER_00 8:48

So everything is saying there's accurate. We, you know, in Minnesota, we actually haven't seen um a lot of cancellations on our on our properties up there. So we're not seeing that with the stuff that we're selling, but we're selling things at a more affordable price point. Um so I can just tell you from the data that we have from our little neck of the woods. Uh, you know, at those price points in Minnesota, it's not does not seem to be happening that much. Um, we might be having like a 5% or something like that. So um, but yeah, if people are getting concerned about the economy or they think prices are gonna drop in the first-time home buyers that are already nervous anyway, they're gonna prices are still too high for most people that are first-time buyers. They're still very high, they're really stretching themselves to buy a house. So they're gonna make sure that it's you know, they feel really good about it. And if they don't, they're gonna back out of it. So um, yeah, I do think prices need to correct in a lot of the country. Um, some of the cheaper, more affordable areas. Yeah, I think even Minnesota they could correct a little bit. Um, probably not, they don't have to come down as much as some of the areas that got really crazy. But I was gonna also say um I owned a house in Venice, Florida, um, just south, about an hour south of Tampa that we lived in, and uh we moved to Sarasota area from a little north, and uh we sold it, or we we moved in 2022, which was like kind of the peak of the market. That's when the rates started going up. And I saw the rates going to seven percent, and uh, I'm like, we I we need to get out of this house and sell it um before the prices drop. And I thought I thought they were gonna collapse because the rates went from 3% to 7% uh overnight, pretty much. And um, that house, even now, you know, four years later almost has not dropped in value that much. Um, I think it's gone down. I just checked on it, it's down maybe eight percent in four or five years, and it's been hit by four hurricanes. It's been hit by four hurricanes, interest rates have you know went from 2.75 percent to seven percent. Um, insurance rates tripled, property taxes doubled, and the price didn't come down that much. So, like I do think those prices need to come down, but I don't think that's a that doesn't sound like a crash to me. Um, and I thought that I thought the price I thought the price would crash there. I really did. Um, so I think Michael's been talking. I think he's like looking at the data like, what are these prices gonna come down? You know, it seems like they would have come down a long time ago. Um they're just really slowly coming down. So I don't know, you know, if this could be a drawn out 10-year period. Uh maybe we could have inflation go for 10 years and house prices just kind of like stagnate or could slowly drop for 10 years. That could happen. Um, unless there's something to instigate some sort of surge of inventory, um, it's hard to foresee a crash. So foreclosures can do that because foreclosures are usually will sell at you know 20% below market value. So those really hurt the market. But uh normal sellers don't seem to um affect the market in that way. A lot of normal sellers will just pull their house back off the market if it doesn't sell for the price they want. So that does, you know, you'll see some of these they'll try to sell it, pull it back off, try to sell it the next year, pull it back off. There's a I've seen some properties for five years. Every year, it's not a good way to do it because every year they're dropping the price, 20 or 30 grand or whatever, uh, because they were way over to start with. Um, not a great way to sell your house for sure. But a lot of people, a lot of sellers don't understand um the market very well. So that's they think that's the way to go. So anyway, yeah, I think um you know he's got some interesting points. It's keep an eye on the market, things are changing all the time. We are at um record low mortgage applications, uh, like the lowest buyer demand, I think, in like 40 years, 50 years, something like that. Um, so very low buyer demand. Uh we have uh I think immigration is very low levels because of the Trump policies, and I'm not a political state, but just I think that's just in the data. Um, and it also with this deportation stuff, you have potentially housing being freed up if people are being deported or or if they're going back home voluntarily just because they're scared or tired of this. So you could have housing being freed up from that and also housing demand not happening because these people aren't gonna go buy a house now uh or even rent if they're concerned about being deported. So you have that going on. You got the AI thing affecting people's jobs, potentially people being worried about that, so they don't want to buy houses. Um, so yeah, you've been record low demand. Uh we just haven't seen a huge surge in supply. So if we do see a surge in supply from something, um be it foreclosures or you know, Wall Street selling off houses or investors or whatever, it could affect the market. But um we've been waiting for four four years, and I it still hasn't really happened. So we'll see.

SPEAKER_02 13:28

But yeah, we want to go ahead and roll this again with your anticipation of future income in order to participate in this housing market, guys. It's time. The genetic signature event going on. If you had to choose between flipping a house or flipping dirt, what would you pick? Here's the truth land beyond. If there is even a hint of uncertainty that you might lose a job or there's been rounds of layoffs happening where you work, there's a good chance that if you were thinking about buying, you're not anymore. And the records are showing that people who are using basically all of their life savings to pay for a down payment are very likely to cancel a transaction versus somebody who has extra cash. And if you think about it, that makes perfect sense because you know you're throwing everything you got into this deal. And if anything goes wrong, whether with the transaction itself, you find out the house has problems afterwards, which we're going to talk about later in this video. A lot of people are losing big money right now due to problems with houses. And even if none of that actually happens, you still have the economic uncertainty. If you are relying on a W-2 paycheck right now from an employer, you are especially vulnerable. Business owners are vulnerable in their own way because businesses can go from successful to tanking overnight. But a lot of business owners that have been in Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 15:06

So I mean, um, good point on the W-2 thing. We're seeing uh we're starting to see just little bits and pieces of this kind of stuff. The company used to be called Square is now called Block. They're a credit card company, and they just laid off about 40% of their workforce. And they claimed it was because of AI. And I think AI may have been part of it, but I think a lot of these uh tech firms way overhired people during the uh pandemic. They were just hiring like crazy. And I don't know if they were being paid by the government to do that or what the reason for that was, but they did, and um, and most of them did not, even with some layoffs, they're way higher staff than they were five years ago. And uh so you have a I think you have a lot of resetting, like block hasn't their revenue hasn't grown that much the last year or two. So if you get to a point where these companies aren't growing, that CEO is pressured to make something happen for the stock price, and if they can't grow the revenue, they're gonna lay people off. So that's what Block did. And we might see some more of that if you don't have um revenue growth at some of these these uh tech companies, but it's gonna hit tech companies first. You know, I don't know when it will roll down to corporations, like big companies in Minnesota, like Target corporations up there, um, Best Buy, uh Cargill, United Health, uh, those are big slow companies, and um, they don't tend to lay people off unless they're really having economic pain, like there's a recession or something. Um so if we do a recession and they have, you know, the revenues are declining and they're really in some pain, then they'll lay people off. But they uh, you know, if they're just gonna lay people off because of AI efficiencies, I mean that I mean, geez, that could take years before they do that. I I can't foresee that happening very quickly at those companies. But um, tech companies could do it quickly. Oh, no, I think out in San Francisco and San Jose that could happen fast. So let's roll it, roll it some more.

SPEAKER_02 17:09

Now, one of the other main drivers of these record cancellations right now is people are looking at their payments. And once they get all the information, because when you first make the offer, you don't fully know what your monthly payment might be. Because once you find the property and you make an offer, that's just to get your foot in the door. You might make an offer right away just to get your foot in the door and secure the deal. But after you start running the numbers and you get an insurance quote and you look at what the property taxes are going to be the year after you buy, suddenly the monthly payment picture changes. And people are realizing this, people are getting smarter.

SPEAKER_00 17:47

So you made really two really good points on uh property taxes and insurance. So when you go to buy a house, uh when you run the numbers, usually you'll run the numbers based on the property taxes that are currently being paid. But um if it's a house that's been owned for a long time, their taxes could be much lower than what they're supposed to be because they just haven't been assessed properly over the years. Um assessors, like if you sit in your house for a long time, the assessors just kind of like they don't even, I think it's an automated assessment thing. It just doesn't really, they don't look at it that closely. So we've I've seen stuff in Florida where the taxes double or triple or quadruple when the house sells. Uh Florida also has rules about um when you're homesteaded that your property taxes can't go up a certain more than a certain amount every year. So you've got to be careful with taxes being possibly much higher than what the current owner's paying. So that's one thing. Um the other thing is insurance, is another one. Make sure you get some insurance quotes um because especially in Florida, like you might find that your insurance is three times as high as what you thought it was gonna be, or five times as high, or ten times as high. Um, there are places in Florida now, you know, places that you wouldn't think are in flood zones that are or are now um or hurricane prone areas and things. Certain ages of houses if they're older than certain years that weren't built to the current hurricane codes, so older than like you know, 2000, um they're a lot more expensive to insure. So yeah, just a lot of stuff to think about there. Um, let's go ahead and roll it some more.

SPEAKER_02 19:21

They're seeing videos like this, and they are doing the math ahead of time and realizing wait a minute, this is gonna cost an extra four or five hundred dollars a month that I wasn't anticipating. I'm out, and also the fact that the housing market has been rapidly shifting towards a buyer's market in many different metros across the country. This has led to a situation where we have about half a million more sellers than buyers nationwide, and inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels. Essentially, buyers have way more negotiating power, there's way more options, so it's easier to back out of the deal if something doesn't smell.

SPEAKER_00 19:58

You just made a really good point there that uh actually kind of interesting that everyone's saying that the housing market is crashing and there's all the supply and all this stuff. And he just said, Well, there it's back to pre pre-pandemic levels. Well, pre-pandemic levels in most markets were still very tight uh for housing, and house prices were going up every year. Um, it was very tight, it was hard to buy a house. This was in 2018-2019. Uh, it was not easy to buy a house then, it was expensive and uh tight inventory, et cetera. So if we're back to where it was then, um, I would not call that like a really loose buyer-friendly market. Um, I think one difference now is we have less buyer activity. So we have maybe the same supply we had back then, uh, with less buyers uh in the market. So I think right now it probably is a it's a better market now, but prices are higher than they were back then, too. So kind of a balance. But yeah, I do think that if we don't have um interest rates come down, you know, another point or so, you know, the market's gonna keep softening slowly. Um, you know, I don't think these guys would talk about crashes and all this extreme stuff happening because I think it gets views, but um the most likely thing to happen is what's been happening for the last four or five years is like this slow motion trickle down in pricing, is what's gonna keep happening, I think. And it might start happening in in other places, even like Minnesota, might start seeing some slow price declines, maybe. Um, but I think the Midwest will be maybe the least affected uh of the entire country because the prices didn't boom during COVID. So there they shouldn't have a whole lot to drop there. But uh Florida, I don't we might not see price increases in Florida for I mean it might be five or ten years before you see prices go up here again. Um, could be 10 years. So go ahead and roll it some more.

SPEAKER_02 21:42

All right, during your due diligence period, or even at the last minute, even if you have to lose about deposit, losing 10 grand sucks, right? I would rather lose 10 grand than 100 grand or 400 grand on a bad deal, right? And some cities across America are actually seeing much, much higher cancellation rates than this 14% average right now. San Antonio, Texas, over a 21% cancellation rate. Atlanta, Is at an 18.5% cancellation rate. Cleveland, Ohio is at an 18% cancellation rate. Riverside, California is at 17.5%. Orlando, Florida is at 17.3%. And this is what you start to see happen when sellers start to outnumber buyers by a wide margin. Even in areas where the cancellation rate is lower, it's still there. And here's the thing, guys, like some people might get scared and freak out that wow, a lot of people are canceling deals. Maybe I should cancel mine too. I don't necessarily think you should think that way if you're a buyer, especially if you've been doing your homework and you do find a solid deal. But what I will tell you is that now that things are moving more in your favor, this is good news. It means you don't have to jump into a deal that you're not 100% about. It means that you don't have to let the seller make all the rules. You definitely don't have to overpay. And if you're in a market where that's still happening and you're still seeing multiple offers and things like that, well, then you have to decide if you want to participate in that frenzy, even though the general market is moving in the opposite direction.

SPEAKER_00 23:20

Because there's a good chance that so another good point he made was um just uh it's better to buy a house right now than it has been, probably in 10 years in most markets. Um, I would say at least in 10, at least 10 years. So you're going back to 2016, 2015. Um because you know, in Minnesota we're seeing, and down here in Florida too, that if the buyers have a lot of power now, so they can get everyone, you can do inspections, you can ask for repairs, you can ask for your closing costs to get paid, you can get you know negotiate the price down. Um I mean you can pretty much ask for anything, you know. So you could you might as well ask for a laundry list of things, um, and see you'll push as push for as much as you possibly can and and then add a couple more things that you don't even want, you know, and uh let them negotiate them off. So yeah, it's a you know good time if you if you are in the market to buy a house. Um I just say at the end of the day, like you gotta live your life too. So um you can't always just be like, you know, what's the market doing? Like, pay attention to what the market's doing, but you also need to live your life and you need a place to live. And I don't like living in rental properties personally, um, because it doesn't feel like home to me. I can't do anything to them. Um, so I to me there's a lot of value in just owning a home. And um even down here in Florida, that we own the home we live in, and uh I know it's going down in value, and I knew that when we bought it, and I just planned for it to be worth you know substantially less money than what we paid for it. Um, and I was okay with that because I want I want to own my house that I live in. It's there's a value to it to me, not just not just a financial value. So, you know, but if you look at it and say, hey, it's not worth um you know a hundred thousand dollar extra cost to me over a 10-year period. Uh or the thing is if you wait 10 years, that you'll probably get it back because the prices will rebound and come back again. But um, I do think, especially in Florida, like you need to be looking at it like you know, you might you might lose 100 grand of value in your house in the next five five years or so. So if you're not comfortable with that, then you know, probably don't buy a house down here. Um, Minnesota, I don't think you're gonna see that that level of drops. I think you know, might maybe 50 grand in some places uh for higher price houses uh could could be possible. Um, but probably more likely like 10 or 20 grand, um, which isn't, I mean, that's over a five-year period, that should not be that big of a deal when you when you average it out over the years. So yeah, go ahead and play it some more.

SPEAKER_02 25:50

That could come to an end sooner or later, even in hot markets. But I think people should be heavily evaluating their financial situation more than ever right now. Forget about what the bank tells you you're allowed to spend, forget about what friends and family say about owning versus renting, and that renting is a waste of money and all of that nonsense. Listen to what your finances and your instincts are telling you. If it doesn't feel right, definitely back out. You literally have nothing to lose, guys, because we're gonna talk about Zillow's home price forecast in this video as well. And it is essentially non existent. You don't have to really worry about prices shooting up in most of America right now. But first, before we talk about Zillow's home price forecast, let's talk about the home repairs that are catching many homeowners completely off guard right now. Because as of last year, about 85% of homeowners spent money on unplanned home repairs. Okay, and this is a report from Clever Offers, which is a platform owned by Clever Real Estate. And once you hear this information, it's also going to give you something else to consider before pulling the trigger on buying a home right now. Half of American homeowners right now say their home needs repairs or renovations that they cannot afford to do. That is huge because if you live in a house, which is 50% of these people, and you can't afford to make repairs, not only does the value of your house deteriorate, but that deferred maintenance starts to pile up. And as it pile up, it can become even more costly to repair down the road if it's not addressed when it's still an early issue. Think of things like roofing issues or foundational issues or plumbing issues, things where the longer you put it off, then the worse it can get. And 65% of homeowners admit that they are now actively ignoring home maintenance tasks that need to be done within the past five years, guys. Past five years is a long time. So you defer maintenance on something essential over the past five years, that can go from being a$20,000 repair to a$50,000 repair all just because you didn't take care of it early. And here's what I mean: putting off maintenance actually resulted in repairs that could have been avoided for nearly one in three homeowners. And of those, 72% spent at least that's interesting.

SPEAKER_00 28:19

50% of people are not doing the repairs, some of the repairs that they're that they need in their house or um up to 60% in some cases, it sounds like. So I think the last time we saw this was in 2005, 06. This was pretty common. Um, that people got really stretched on their houses because the prices were very high like they are now. And so people would buy houses. I think a lot of people times people don't they don't think, especially their first-time home buyers, they think, well, the there's the mortgage, there's the insurance, there's the taxes, and maybe there's an HOA, and then if I can afford that, then I'm good. And they don't think about you know, replacing a roof can cost$20,000 to$40,000. Uh, and roofs don't last forever. They last, you know, if you buy an existing home, you know, you might have less than 10 years or less than five years of life on it. And uh hopefully your inspector called that out for you if it was less than five years. But sewer lines can be ten to twenty thousand dollars if you've got to repair or replace those. Um, there's just, I mean, houses are very expensive. Like, there's that's oh, houses I've I've bought in Florida down here. Um, it's like when I buy the houses, I'm putting in tens of thousands of dollars to fix things up that you know were deferred. And then when I sell them, um, I'm usually doing it again, another 10 or 20,000 bucks um updating to the latest things to try to make it, you know, show show ready and stuff. So um, yeah, make sure if you're buying a house, make sure you've got, yeah, I would say, you know, 10 or 20 grand extra. Unless you're really handy, you can do the work yourself uh somewhere that you have access to, so you can replace a roof or a sewer line or a foundation problem or whatever comes up. Um, but yeah, that's the this is concerning. Like if you've got that 50% of the population not fixing their houses up, if we have stagnating crisis for a long period of time, which we probably will, um likely outcome of that is we'll have more foreclosures, is what will happen because those houses will deteriorate in value. Um, the price, the value isn't gonna go up in the market, so it's not gonna uh cover them. And when they do eventually have to move for whatever reason, uh in five or ten years, they won't have enough equity to sell the house because the house is deteriorated, it's not a sellable condition. So we might see that we might start seeing foreclosures at some point in the future. Um, I haven't seen them yet. We don't see very many still. I mean, we're we're uh you know four or five years removed from COVID, and uh I see very few foreclosures. So I don't know, you know, it if we're gonna see them, I don't think it's in the near future. I really don't. Um maybe it's two, three, four years. If we have uh recession and unemployment, that could change things, but um I just don't, yeah, I don't know. There hasn't been much of a foreclosure thing. And I think the government programs to prevent foreclosures are very strong now. Um, so I just don't um I don't know. I don't know much of a factor that will be again. They don't the government won't let 2008 happen again like it did last time. I can tell you that. It's not gonna happen. And I know a lot of people that um were buying properties in 2008, I did I did as well and through that period. A lot of people think that that'll happen again, and they can, you know, capitalize and buy houses like that again. Um I don't I wouldn't be I wouldn't be waiting for it. I know some people that have been waiting for a long time for that to happen again, and I don't think it's ever gonna happen again. I really don't. Not like that. There might be some other version of it, but not like that. Um, so yep, we'll go ahead and play it some more.

SPEAKER_02 31:50

Spent at least five thousand. This goes back to what I tell everybody who wants to be a homeowner. Yeah, it's great. You buy the house, you spent your life savings on the down payment, you put only five percent, ten percent down, you still have PMI payments, and now, oops, you got to come up with an extra five thousand dollars by surprise. Do you have that money? If you can't answer that question as a yes, then you probably shouldn't be buying a house right now. Also, among homeowners who have renovated in the past five years, 70% say that it went over budget, and 58% have at least one regret, including spending too much money. And 22% say that the renovation took too long. Nearly one-third of homeowners have gone into debt completing a renovation project, and 19% had to stop a project halfway through due to unexpected costs. Over half of all Americans, so yeah, a few things there.

SPEAKER_00 32:48

I mean, um, basically, every construction project in the history of mankind has gone over budget over schedule, I think. So that's not new. Like if you're if you're doing anything significant, it's gonna be take longer and be more expensive than you think it's gonna be. Um, so that's that's pretty much for sure. Um, the other phenomenon with owning a house is that I've learned over the years, is that once you own a house, if you start fixing anything up, that's it's like a really slippery slope. It's you gotta be really careful because if you start going, I'm gonna start improving this house, where do you stop? And uh it's almost better if you just don't start. So we had uh I've had a couple houses when I was, you know, 10, 20 years ago, where I just, you know, we were younger and we were saving money, and I just decided I'm like, I'm gonna, we're gonna budget as little money on keeping the house maintained as possible. I'm gonna keep it maintained in a good condition, but I'm not gonna update or improve anything. And I did that for probably a decade pretty successfully, but it was because I just it was like a red line. I'm like, I'm not improving or renovating anything because the second that we we do, I think most people are like this, the second you do, well, I have a really nice um you know kitchen countertop, but the cabinets now look old. Gotta do the cabinets. I just did this at a new house that we just bought. I ended up renovating the entire kitchen that I was not planning on doing because we had fixed up a bunch of other stuff in the house that needed fixing, and I updated it and improved it, and all of a sudden the kitchen looked really old and terrible. Um, so I was like, well, I'll just do a little bit of the kitchen. And I ended up, by the time I was done, I ended up doing the entire everything, whole new kitchen. So now I'm like, okay, now I'm seeing well, the windows are old and all the roofs are old, and so you gotta be really careful with that kind of stuff. Um, if you can get into a house that's in good condition, but maybe is not updated, uh, and you can just tell yourself, you know, especially if you're younger, just try to be okay with it and keep it in good condition and working well. Um, but you don't need to have the latest trends and stuff. Um, because it's it's a very slippery slope once you start doing things. Uh and we do this, we renovate houses when we're renovating uh houses that we fix up. Uh, we have to kind of decide like where how far do we go with it? How far are we gonna renovate the house? Are we gonna do it? Because if once you get past a certain point of renovation, you kind of have to do the whole house. You know, you gotta do okay. Now we're doing all the bathrooms, we're doing the kitchen, we're doing the paint and the carpet, the light fixtures and everything, the windows and everything else. Um, it's really it's like kind of either that or a really minimal uh we're gonna get it, you know, looking fresh and clean and safe and work like fix all the problems that don't work, but not update it. That's kind of the two different things you can do. But uh yeah, you got to be careful um with updating houses, it's very expensive. And um once you especially if you update to a modern standard in an older house, if you just update one part of the house, then the rest of the house starts to look old and it doesn't look right. So that's where you can get into spending a lot more money than you thought you were gonna spend. So go ahead and roll some more.

SPEAKER_02 35:58

58% to be exact, have nothing saved for emergency repairs around the house. And among those savings for renovations, 32% have less than$5,000 saved, and 60% have less than$10,000 saved. So even these so-called equity-rich homeowners, they talk about how Americans are hanging on to a record amount of home equity right now. They are cash poor, guys. They don't have money, which means that if you want to actually take advantage of that equity, you're gonna have to borrow against your house to do all these things because most homeowners don't even have$5 or$10K for an emergency or for a renovation that has to be done. And about 46% of Americans plan on spending more in 2026 than they had to in 2025 on renovations and repairs. 46% also plan on spending$5,000 or more this year. And 28% plan to spend at least 10,000 or more. No wonder why home equity loans and home equity lines of credit are the fastest growing form of consumer debt right now. People are renovating and making essential repairs, whether they can afford it or not, they just say, hey, let's let the house pay for it, and we'll worry about how we're gonna make these payments later. And if you think this doesn't happen to everybody, oh, you're just being dramatic, Michael. Well, take a look. This is what homeowners actually have to say. 51% of homeowners say they spent more on renovations than planned since purchasing their home. And 64% would rather renovate than move to a home that's already been remodeled. And owning a home is basically a part-time job because the typical American is also reporting they spend about 17 hours per month or about 204 hours per year on home maintenance. That's like picking up three extra shifts at the gas station per month, guys. So some people tell me in the comments, I've read that you know I take pride in uh keeping up with my home maintenance and doing repairs and stuff around the house. I learn things, I save money. There are people who have that personality and uh I guess outlook on it. But if you're busy and you're somebody who would rather spend your time doing something else besides home maintenance, you might want to second guess this. That could be yet another reason of why you might want to cancel that contract. Think this whole thing through.

SPEAKER_00 38:23

And if you're worried about 100% agree with him on that. Um, if you don't like doing maintenance and like fixing houses up and like doing these things or learning about them, um then there would be a lot more incentive to be a renter for sure. And I think with the the way the price in the market is right now, um, it's cheaper to rent. It's quite a bit cheaper to rent in most markets than it is to buy. And uh once you own the house, you're yeah, you've got to make spend the money in maintenance, the repairs, you've got to do maintenance and repairs yourself. You're constantly project managing or fixing things. You're it's a it is a part-time job, uh, for sure it is, and it's a responsibility. And if you'd rather you know spend your time doing other things, um don't be a homeowner. I mean, I I like it. I like I like owning the home I live in. I like controlling my environment. I like because I I I understand real estate and construction pretty well, and I don't want to let somebody else control my house. Um, because they're not gonna do it as good as I am. I'm gonna make sure that the house is well maintained and taken care of, that there aren't leaks, that there aren't major problems, and I know that if I live in a rental property, it will not be cared for as well as I'll care for it. Um, so that's me. But if that's not you, then that you know, then you'd have to question like, well, why do you want to buy a house then? Um if you don't, if you're not into maintenance and repair and updating and all that stuff, renting is a pretty good deal financially right now, and it probably will be for quite a quite a while. Um, so I would uh that's really shifted. I think you know, for a lot of American history, um owning a house has been a big way to build wealth, but I think right now I would not be buying a house to build wealth, that's for sure, right now. That's not what I'd be doing. If you're buying buying a house to build wealth, you know, don't do that. That's not a good idea. Um, you can like rent something and build your wealth through a business um or through you know stock investing, other other methods. But I would invest your money in other things. Don't invest your money in a house if that's the if that's the primary reason for doing it, don't do that. So go ahead and roll some more.

SPEAKER_02 40:22

Not building equity and falling behind that way. You should go check out this video I'm putting on the screen because the math proves that hands down, it makes way more sense to continue renting and being an investor over a 30-year time frame than owning a home, guys. In fact, it's not even close. The net worth of the investor versus the homeowner over a 30-year time frame comes out to about double. So go check that video out. And by the way, today I'm walking down Sheridan Avenue in Miami Beach and some of the cross streets. Now, I said we were going to talk about Zillow.

SPEAKER_00 40:57

So there's a book called Rich Dad Porta, which a lot of people are familiar with in real estate. Uh like Robert Kiyosaki wrote it, and he talks about how your personal home is a liability, not an asset. And that's totally true. So if you're investing money into a home for you to live in, that home is just costing you money. So it's not an asset, like an investment. Um, you buy a house, so now you've got to repair it, you've got to maintain it, you've got to pay the utilities, you've got to pay the taxes, you've got to pay the insurance. Um, it's just costing you money. It's not an asset, it's not an investment. Um, but it that doesn't mean there aren't reasons to do it. They're just not good financial reasons to do it. There are just lifestyle reasons to do it. Financially, if you are really financially assumed, that's the most important thing for you. You'd want to rent and then invest your money in a higher return, in a high return asset, not a liability. So you can get, you know, the stock market's very has been very good for a number of years. Um, there's a number of companies that are very good in the stock market still, I think that are good values still. So you'd be better at putting your money in the stock market. Um, or even buying a rental property that does where the numbers pencil out and make sense, because usually a house that you'll live in, the numbers wouldn't pencil out as an investment anyway. The way that, like, because the way that the pricing works out for houses that people like to live in, they're nicer, they're more expensive, they're you know, they cost more to operate. Um, they're not good investments. But I actually, when I was young in my low 20s, I actually rented a bedroom from a friend to try to keep my living expenses as low as possible. So I lived very low cost, uh, a couple hundred bucks a month with utilities and everything like that. And I just took all my extra income I was saving, and then I bought rental properties that actually cash flowed and made sense uh on a on a financial basis. So these are rental properties that I probably didn't want to live in myself. Um, but it actually would have been more expensive for me to live in the rental properties than it was for me to live in a bedroom in my friend's house because the rental my first rental rented for a thousand dollars a month, and I was paying a couple hundred dollars a month in the the bedroom I was renting. So that way I could just keep on buying rentals and keep my cost of living as low as possible. You could move into a bedroom in your rental and then rent out the other rooms. Um, but I had a you know a good friend that I lived with and we had a long wall, so it worked out for me to do that. Um, but yeah, if you're if you're young and you want to build your finances, um you know, if you're gonna buy, if you want to buy something, buy a rental property or investment property. And if you want to live in a bedroom in that and it pencils out and makes sense, you can do that. That's that's gonna make sense. I mean, almost at any market that can make sense. I mean, any any, you know, as the markets go up and down and sideways and everything else, uh, there's almost always opportunities to buy duplexes and triplexes and or high bedroom count houses and house hack them and uh live mortgage-free essentially, or even make money living there. So, you know, that's that's that kind of stuff is not what he's talking about. It's not what I'm talking about either, generally. Um, that's that kind of stuff almost always makes sense to do. Um, so you can still do that now. Um, you could do it a couple years ago, you could do it next year. You could you could pretty much always do that kind of stuff. Where I'm always buying rentals too. Um, some years it's easier than others, some years it's tougher than others, but there's always opportunities. So if you're looking at an investment grade. Properties, um, those still make sense and uh just have to but depends on your market a little bit too where you live and where you're buying. But go ahead and roll it some more.

SPEAKER_02 44:31

Let me show you why. Zillow just updated their 12-month forecast, and they are projecting that US home prices are going to rise 0.9% between January this year and January next year. And that is a downward revision from their original 12-month forecast that they had just one month ago when they thought prices were going to go up by 2.1%. They've already cut it more than in half in less than a month based on how the year is going so far. And I think they are gonna be wrong because Zillow typically is wrong with these forecasts. Because look at what it's already showing right now. As of the latest reading, US home prices measured by Zillow's home value index are only up 0.2% nationwide. And they're expecting 0.9%. So, how much do you want to bet that at some point over the next couple of months, they're gonna revise that down even further? And it could even drop to negative. And Zillow probably has more data on the housing market than just about any other big private company. So if they don't even think that prices are gonna be jumping much throughout the year, what's the rush, guys? Why worry about it? Okay, especially when you just look at inflation.

SPEAKER_00 45:45

So, one of the things to keep in mind, you know, it's I'm sure like as I was watching the video, my people are probably like, How are prices still going up? How are these they're gonna go up again? Like there's they've been they have been going up kind of, but the way that the housing prices are measured is they're measuring the whole market and then taking a median or an average usually. And I know in Florida, uh, what we've seen is that the higher price houses still sell. Um, I mean, you still have like million, two million dollar houses that just sell fairly quickly, and uh because the stock market's very high and uh valuations of assets are are very high, and those people are not using mortgages to buy those houses, they don't care about 7% interest rates or 6% or whatever. So if you have these higher price house points still moving and the the lower price houses that are relying on mortgages not moving as much, the the median price points of houses are shifting higher. It looks it looks like prices are shifting a little higher, is what it can look like. Um, there's there's another there's one metric called, I think Kay Schiller has a metric called the like housing price pairs, where they actually look at the the resale of the same house to see how that exact house has changed. And that's that's I think a better indicator uh to look at. And I think the prices have probably been going down a little bit across the country, but you have these um these little things in the market that make can shift price points to make it look like things are actually going up, but they're actually actually going down. Um, so that I know definitely down here in Florida it's more of a factor. Minnesota, not as much of a factor. You don't have as many of these cash-purchased multi-million dollar houses up there as a percentage of the marketplace. Up there, it's more of a mortgage-based market, but even up there, um, you know, I think prices are up just very slightly uh year over year. So it's like shocking. Like, how on earth are prices still going up? The housing market's supposedly crashing. Um, but like you say, they're not going up much. I wouldn't be worried about it. Um they might be up a percent over the last year, they'll probably be down a percent or two in Minnesota over the next year, would be my guess. So it's not something you have to need to worry about. They're not um you're not gonna miss out on anything. So go and roll it.

SPEAKER_02 47:50

No, the inflation numbers have been coming in, and the PCE inflation, which is the one the Fed cares about the most, is still basically at three percent. And so just if you look at that and you take it at face value, okay, home prices go up less than one percent this year, inflation goes up three percent. Effectively, homes actually lost two percent in value, just adjusting for inflation. And that's if you believe the inflation numbers, we know that they're probably a lot higher. If you're interested in real estate investing and you're tired of scrolling and you want to get some off-market deals at some good discount, oh thanks, man. Appreciate it. Thanks, dude. What's your name? Dylan. Dylan, yeah. I appreciate it, man.

SPEAKER_01 48:35

Heavy as silver and gold. So I'm 22. I'm learning from you and everybody. So I see you around here. My friends live around here. I'm like, yo, what? No way.

SPEAKER_02 48:42

Oh, good, man. I'm I'm glad you learned about that. It's important, especially being young.

SPEAKER_01 48:46

Trust me, I got to. I got to.

SPEAKER_02 48:48

You're gonna thank me in 10 years.

SPEAKER_01 48:49

I know, I'm already thanking you. Trust me. I got silver probably like three years ago. Nice started. Nice seeing it now.

SPEAKER_02 48:56

I'm like, whoa, probably pretty happy now, huh?

SPEAKER_01 48:58

Yeah, really happy now.

SPEAKER_02 48:59

Good man. I'm glad to hear that.

SPEAKER_01 49:01

Awesome, thank you so much.

SPEAKER_02 49:02

Yeah, good for you, Dylan. Well, thanks for saying hello, Dylan.

SPEAKER_01 49:04

Nice to meet you.

SPEAKER_02 49:05

Okay, take care, Dylan.

SPEAKER_01 49:06

Hopefully I see you again.

SPEAKER_02 49:07

All right, thanks, man. Thanks for watching. You see, guys, that's exactly what I'm talking about. Dylan here, 22 years old. So he bought silver three years ago. Okay, three years ago, back when it was probably less than$30 an ounce, and that was he was 19 years old. Now, look at it, silver is pushing$100 an ounce again in the mid 80s, high 80s, wherever it is. He's extremely happy with that. So it's not like I'm here trying to just, you know, put everyone down and make people feel like they're never going to be able to have anything. I give very helpful information, and if implemented, can change people's lives. And that's exactly the goal on the channel. That's what it always has been and always will be, which is why I'm telling you right now, when it comes to buying a home, don't rush in. You know, even in the hottest markets in the United States, home prices are only predicted to go up about 5.5% this year. And might say, well, that's a lot, Michael, but it's not really when you look at how affordable a lot of these markets are. In fact, the number one on the list is Rockford, Illinois, smack dead next to my hometown of Belvedere, Illinois. Zilla believes home price is going to go up there 5.4% this year. But when you look down this list, what do you notice? Basically, every single market they mention is either in the Midwest or in the Northeast, which are still the markets that have very low inventory, and the incomes are still enough to match what the home prices are in the area. But if you look at the downside of things, you can see that home prices are expected to drop more in the markets where it's actually dropping than in the markets where it's actually rising. For example, this Louisiana market here, 6.5%. Lake Charles, 5.6%. You know, those are bigger drops than what we see on the increase side of things. So this shows you that the momentum continues to lean more towards the downside in the housing market. And it's going to continue to be that way. Sure, are some of these markets going up? Yeah. But even the ones that are going up are not going up much more than just the rate of inflation. And of course, if prices are going down in your area, that's even more perfect because now you're not only getting a lower home price, but adjusted for inflation. That means the price dropped way more. So a 3% price drop could effectively mean a 6 or 9% drop in real monetary terms for you. And look, you don't have to listen to me. You can do whatever you want. I've seen comments saying, Oh, I decided to stop listening to all this Doomer stuff, and I just decided to buy a house and have a family and live happily ever after. Well, that's good for you. You're probably one of those people that's now getting hit with these big repair costs that maybe you can't afford, maybe you can't. I don't know. But jumped in because you're yeah, it's there's um you mentioned the housing doomers.

SPEAKER_00 52:03

There's kind of a group of guys on YouTube like Michael and um there's Reventure, Nick Gurley, and a couple other guys that are. I think people kind of call them the housing doomers. I think they got a lot of um traction in the last four or five years because the housing market was so overvalued, and um negative content uh goes viral much better than positive content does. So these guys kind of um, and they also I think they believe in what they're saying, and that that's probably kind of their personality of every analytical people. And uh, so they've been doing these these kinds of things for years, these videos. And um, you know, one of the comments said, like, I'm gonna stop watching these housing doomers, and I think you should be careful how much you watch these guys, because they it's not completely all true. Um they they there's a spin and a bias on all of it. Uh, yes, they have data, um, but there's a lot of emotion behind it. I mean, if you watch these guys for the last four years, you'd think that the world, the sky was falling and the world was falling apart. And um, it doesn't feel that way. Um, even in Florida, it doesn't feel that way. And I just saw on his list of housing markets you know dropping. There was hardly anything in Florida on that list. There was Punta Gorda, Florida, said negative 1.9%, which is like, you know, for a market that doubled or tripled in price in a year or two, doesn't it doesn't even make any sense. Um, I think punta gorda is gonna go down a lot more than 1.9%. Uh, I think it might go down 10% next year or this year. But that's like the epicenter of of of overpricing and correction. And even at that, it's still over, it still needs to come down more. So, yeah, just be careful, you know, take the information in for these guys. But um, I mean, you don't have any real who's put out videos about good things in the housing market, you know, there's not many. So you gotta be take take a little, you know, take it with a little grain of salt. Um, I can tell you I see all these videos about Florida market crashing and everyone's leaving Florida and all this stuff. And I kind of wish it was more true than it is, um, because I don't see people leaving Florida. Uh, I'm sure there's cases of it. Uh, I haven't nobody's left my area, my neighborhood. There's lots of houses being built still, people still building and buying houses like crazy. There's a little crazy traffic. Um, prices are slowly coming down. So that's more the real world, but that doesn't get headlines. Um, you know, it's not exciting to say that prices dropped 5% last year. You know, that's what is that? But that's for one, they're they're still overpriced. Uh so prices dropped 5% a year, they're still overpriced, people are still moving here. Um, yeah, I don't know. I uh you know that's that's kind of more the reality of it. Uh, I haven't seen a 2008 type of crisis down here. Um, eight, uh, people were fleeing Florida. Um, the economy crashed because it was a housing market economy then. Um, with remote work now. I mean, everybody down here works remotely. Like nobody goes to an office anywhere. So it's not really, you know, in 08, people lost their jobs building houses or whatever they were doing in the housing market, selling houses, mortgaging houses, you know, doing mortgages and building houses, and then they had to move somewhere else to get a job. And now people down here are from other areas, they brought their jobs with them, the remote jobs, and um, those jobs might go away at some point, you know, they haven't yet. But uh so you don't have the same dynamics going on, and these are also pretty high-income people, usually very high-income people that came from New York and California and other areas, Seattle was common. And um yeah, so it's really changed the economy down here. You know, the last before or five years ago, the economy out here in the housing market was based on what people could make working down here, and the jobs down here, it's not a great house, it's not a great job market down here. So the housing market was actually pretty cheap when we first moved here. Uh, it was kind of an attractive thing about coming down here, but now it's it's almost priced more like um it's more affordable than New York and Seattle and uh California, but definitely more expensive than the Midwest. So it has to stay more affordable than those places because that's where people are moving from to because they want to, you know, get a house for less more house for less money, live in a nice, you know, warmer, put warmer state. Um, so you know, we're not gonna get to New York City levels of pricing, but uh we'll be 20% below that, which we probably are now, and that's kind of where it's at. And I mean, my whole street is Californians and Seattle people and some New Yorkers, but not as many New Yorkers as there used to be. It's mostly Californians and Washington State people, it seems like. So, yeah, um, that's my take on it. So, yeah, it's not all doom and gloom. Um, I do think the housing market should keep residing. I think um be careful if you're a first-time buyer, you know, be cautious, do your diligence. You don't have to buy a house. You can rent if you're comfortable renting and you like fixing things, rent. Go invest in, like you said, gold and silver. Silver is, I mean, you could have bought silver six months ago and made you could have quadrupled your money. Um, gold, gold has gone up a lot in the last six months as well. So, gold, copper, silver, they might be they're pretty high now. I don't know if I would go buy a bunch of it now, but um, the stock market still has got a lot of good investments in it. So there's lots of things you can do. You can go buy rental properties in certain markets, that still makes sense. So you don't have to just put money into a house that's gonna cost you money every year. It's not a great financial move, and I agree with them on that for sure. So, well, I think that's probably about it for this one. I don't know that we need to keep watching uh more of it. So we'll just wrap it up here. So yeah, I hope you enjoyed it. I hope you got some information, some uh, you know, you got my bias on it, you got my bias on top of Michael's bias. So he's he's pretty negative and a doomer. I consider myself pretty conservative, and I tend to be negative on I have a negative um conservative outlook on investments to try to be safe, but um not to the level of Michael and like Nick Gurley and these guys. And I have been following them for four or five years now. Um but yeah, I've not I've not seen most of their most of our predictions haven't quite come true, like they said. So just take it with a grain of salt and um you still gotta live your life. So that's all I got.