Housing Crash in 2026? Here’s What the Data Actually Says

🏡 Is the housing market about to crash… or is that just another headline grabbing your attention?

👉 Check out one of our trusted partners featured in this video:
https://go.ezreiclosings.com/tc?am_id=homeguys

In this video, we break down a CPA’s latest market update and give our real, unfiltered reactions as real estate professionals on the ground.

Here’s what we cover:

📊 Housing Market Reality Check

• Home prices are still rising (up ~0.9% year-over-year)
• Inventory remains tight—far from the oversupply needed for a crash
• Foreclosures are up slightly, but still historically low
• Today’s borrowers are in a much stronger position than 2008

💸 The Hidden Costs No One Talks About

• Insurance costs up a staggering 72% since 2019
• Property taxes up 31%
• Maintenance and repairs have doubled (or more)
• High interest rates are locking homeowners out of refinancing

📉 Interest Rates Explained

• Why mortgage rates are hovering around 6%
• How inflation and global events are influencing borrowing costs

🤖 AI, Jobs, and the Economy

• Is AI really about to replace millions of jobs?
• A realistic take vs. the clickbait headlines
• What to watch from major tech companies moving forward

🎯 Whether you’re buying, selling, investing—or just trying to make sense of the headlines—this is a grounded, data-driven conversation you don’t want to miss.

🎥 Watch the original market update here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X03ZGdr04vQ&t=2s

👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments:
Do you think a housing crash is coming?

#RealEstate #HousingMarket #InterestRates #HomeBuying #RealEstateInvesting #AI #Economy

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Connect with our team here: homeguys.com/yt

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:11

Since twenty nineteen, insurance costs are up seventy-two percent, and property taxes are up thirty-one percent. I mean maintenance repairs have also doubled and tripled in the last five years.

SPEAKER_06 0:20

And so the cost of owning a home has gotten very high. It really has.

SPEAKER_05 0:23

Everything has gone higher, but everybody's pay hasn't gone higher yet. So I think that's where we're gonna have to figure out. Hey, welcome back to the uh Jaden and James uh podcast where we talk about real estate and whatever else comes up. Um today we're doing another reaction video. Uh I'm gonna be uh completely honest, Jaden. I have oh, hold on, my bad. Jaden, how's it going, buddy?

SPEAKER_06 0:46

Hey good, good to see you. How are we doing?

SPEAKER_05 0:48

Sorry, I forgot he was here, guys. No, honestly, we do a bunch of podcasts, guys, and then all of a sudden, you know, I I try to do that on the first one, and then I forget that we're acting like we're doing it all over again. So, anywho, uh, welcome, Jaden. Thanks for uh helping me and and and your time. I know your time is valuable too. Jaden and I we live in different states, we're always doing different things. We always try to have this um we push everybody together. What am I trying to say? We try to do time to do videos like this because I I think people really enjoy our um uh our thoughts on what's out there. And being that we're right in the business, we've been in this business for what 10 years strong. Uh you've been in it for 20, 25 years strong. Um let's watch it and find out what's going on. Do you know anything about this, Shaden?

SPEAKER_06 1:36

Uh I follow this guy. He's a CPA accountant, he's had a lot of really good insights on investing in the stock market, um, housing market, stuff like that, taxes. So pretty smart guy.

SPEAKER_05 1:46

Okay, well let's uh let's uh let's just listen to him and find out what he has to say.

SPEAKER_02 1:51

Today's video, I want to give you a housing market update. So we're gonna cover home prices, uh interest rates, uh, and how the hidden costs are surging in the US. Let's start with home prices. Uh this is a five-year chart of median home prices in the U.S. It currently stands at$429,226. And this is up 0.9% compared to last year. So it should be very clear that there is no housing market crash. During the last housing market crash, median home prices in the U.S. fell by approximately 30%. And again, right now, home prices are up by 0.9%. Okay, maybe you agree.

SPEAKER_05 2:30

I put it home prices have I just want to clarify for everybody. Um when we talk about the medium housing, that's California's big houses. That's New York's big house. It's everything. It's everything. I don't necessarily always like that. The medium house pricing is$429. Because I really believe this is something that is really area located.

SPEAKER_06 2:55

Yeah, I mean, in min in California it's a million, probably, right? So if the medium for the whole country is$429, then you pull out California and New York, maybe it's really$329 or less.

SPEAKER_05 3:08

I wonder, I want so that's why don't get too excited, guys, when you're watching this when they talk about the medium house prices for the nation because we all your area might be lower. Yeah, yeah. My guess is if you don't live in California, you're pretty much okay.

SPEAKER_06 3:21

I think the Minneapolis Metro, what do you think? The median's probably high threes, I would guess.

SPEAKER_05 3:26

Um, no, I yeah, you know what? Now that you see Minneapolis, I would see yeah, I would still say three, three and a quarter. So I mean, I don't think it's that much.

SPEAKER_06 3:34

Yeah, if you're in the suburbs, it's higher.

SPEAKER_05 3:36

It's definitely higher in the suburbs. So I just wanted to say that.

SPEAKER_06 3:39

So well, I think the key point on this was you know, we were watching those videos from the crash bros talking about all the real estate crashes all the time, like the sky's falling, Florida's crashing, everything's cratering. And I keep saying, like, man, I I'm not seeing that. I think there's some corrections going on, and I think that these, you know, that people get views by saying there's crashes, um, maybe little pockets there are. Um, but this is, you know, does that look like a crash nationally? No. Um, so yeah, that's that's kind of what I've been saying for a long time is I'm not seeing a crash. Now, it doesn't mean a crash won't happen at some point, but I am not seeing it currently.

SPEAKER_05 4:14

But let's hold on before you do that, like on the Florida one. Um, and and I still think we're in an adjustment period. If we're an adjustment, yeah. You know what I mean? We're in an adjustment period of like everyone's like, oh, the prices in Florida are going, they're they're dropping. I'm like, yeah, but they were inflated too high.

SPEAKER_06 4:32

I think I was, you know, I was in real estate in the Great Recession and before the Great Recession, so I kind of saw how that all worked. And I think a big difference that people don't remember or don't know because they weren't around was that people that were buying houses in 2005 had no equity. They were buying at these really high prices at really high interest rates with really bad loans and no credit, and they had no, like they were coming with like no down payments, no credit, sometimes no income checks.

SPEAKER_05 4:59

And um and then gonna make a million dollars next year.

SPEAKER_06 5:03

Yeah, I mean, so like it's not like they had any, they had no buffer of anything. Like there's like there was no equity in the house. They a lot of times these people didn't even have jobs um or didn't have enough income to actually afford the house. And uh so then when the house prices started going down in 07, 08, well, if you bought a house in 05 or early 06 for overinflated value, and you put no money into it, and then it went down, so now you have negative equity, what are you gonna do? You're gonna walk away from the house. I mean, that's what happened. So we had like all these houses that were sold in like you know, 04, 05, 06 that were like that. Um, there was a and there was a lot of them, and it was like basically fraud happening. So now you have the market now. Okay, even if people that bought it in 2021 and 22 at a pretty high price, most of them have equity, like because they came in with down payments, they had good credited income when they came in, they've been paying on these loans for four or five years now. Um, they were probably good borrowers when they bought the house. So even if their house goes down, I just saw a house in my neighborhood. Um, they sold it for 100 grand less than they paid for it a few years ago. So they lost 100 grand. But because they had equity, they had enough equity to do that, like they had enough buffer in the whole situation to to do that. And I think that's that's the more common scenario now is that there's so much equity in all these houses that you're not gonna have people walking away from it. Also, these people had good credit when they came into these houses, they don't want to destroy their credit by walking away from it and getting foreclosed on.

SPEAKER_05 6:34

We also had a fluke thing called COVID, right? Yeah, that you know, all everything aligned just perfectly.

SPEAKER_06 6:41

You know, people had more money now to spend right built in their houses during COVID, they went and bought a new house, they pulled equity from the old house to put it in the new house, you know. So they even if you bought a house at a really high price, you still have equity because you brought your equity with you, you know.

SPEAKER_05 6:57

So and that's the that's the big difference. Again, you know, and I know we're going down a little bit of a rabbit hole here, but everybody thinks it's a it's a crash, or you know, this crash is gonna happen again. You know, how many times it's so different. It's gonna there could be a crash, but it's not gonna be the same way because we prov we prevent all of that.

SPEAKER_06 7:16

Yeah, there's a saying uh history doesn't repeat, but it ri rhymes, I think is what they say. Like history can rhyme, it doesn't necessarily repeat exactly the same way, right? And I think you know, everybody that saw 08 happen was like, oh, what they're watching for the exact same thing to happen again. I'm like, it's not so many things have changed, things are so different now. Like we could still have a crash, but it's gonna be different than 08 in a lot of ways. So it's you understand like what would cause the crash now. Well, you don't have the foreclosure thing happening in the not in the same way, at least. I mean the foreclosure numbers are really, really low. I think he's gonna go over that. Um, they're they're like as low as they've been in many years still. So that's not happening. So where's all the inventory coming from to cause this crash? Don't know. Let's let's see what else he has to say. Okay, keep it going, Brady.

SPEAKER_03 8:03

Hey, and just for my own note, but also touching what you guys talked about, median price at MSP right now, according to Gemini's Zillow average, that's$316,000.

SPEAKER_05 8:13

So I was pretty close at the$350. What did I say?$325?

SPEAKER_03 8:16

Yeah, you're something like that.

SPEAKER_05 8:18

Is that Minneapol? Is that just Minneapolis?

SPEAKER_03 8:20

That's what it says, yeah, in Minneapolis.

SPEAKER_04 8:22

That's my if you throw the burbs up there, you're probably at$400.

SPEAKER_05 8:25

Yes.

SPEAKER_04 8:26

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SPEAKER_05 9:03

Yes, I I do believe that.

SPEAKER_02 9:05

Not crashed yet, but maybe you believe that home prices are gonna crash soon. So listen, if that's what you believe or if that's what you're waiting for, then I'll tell you that it just all boils down to simple economics, supply and demand. And just think about it logically. For home prices to crash, you need much more supply than there is demand. And with that being said, you're looking at the supply side. So there are currently 1.7 million homes listed for sale, and this is slightly down compared to 12 months ago. Okay, so supply is down, but maybe demand has fallen more than supply. But I would say not really, otherwise, you would feel you know the home prices crashed and home prices have been going up. Okay, so home prices have not been crashing, they haven't even been going down because the supply of homes is not surging up. Okay, so supply's not surging up, but maybe not yet, but maybe it will. Maybe the supply of homes will shoot up when there's a massive wave of foreclosures. So you see how we're going deeper and deeper down this like rabbit hole. And you know what? I'd say, okay, yes, foreclosures are rising, it's true. So does this spell trouble? And I want to show you the data. So here's the foreclosure activity by year. This is going back to 2005. So I want you to take a look at where we stand as of December 31st, so end of the year 2025. Foreclosure starts are up by 14% year over year. So take a look at that tiny little number in 2025. Add about 14% to that. And if you do that, I would say that's not alarming. And as a matter of fact, there are fewer foreclosures right now than there were back in 2005. And look at when foreclosure activity peaked in the last housing market crash. From 2005, it took five years for foreclosures to peak. And again, we're not even at 2005 levels yet. And just so you know, home prices didn't bottom out until 2012.

SPEAKER_06 11:04

So this is what I was talking about was like, okay, you might see a headline like foreclosures are up 50%. They don't say like from historic record lows last year.

SPEAKER_05 11:15

From five to 10. That's 50%.

SPEAKER_06 11:19

Yeah, I mean, you could have even say next year they went up 50% next year, they're still going to be historically low. Uh, so it's not, you know, you'd have to see them rise a huge amount. So even right now, if they doubled, went up 100% next year, they would be where they were in 2005. And if you were around 2005, 2005 was an extremely strong housing market and economy. People were not getting really foreclosed on in 2005. 05 is when like the prices were really high and people were buying like overextending and getting all these fake loans and stuff. People weren't getting foreclosed on yet. The foreclosures happened after 2005. So when the housing market really, when the bottom really fell out of the housing market, was like 08, 09, and 10. When you see this foreclosures that really, you know, was at uh 1.84%. It's uh almost 10 times the amount of foreclosures that we are at right now. And you don't see the trend like you see this trend of like it's increasing a little bit. Does that look anything like 05 to 06 to 07? Right. It looks nothing like the same thing. So because the loans are so much different now, I it's just I don't see any indication of this happening. Now, the only thing that would change this, in my mind, would be like some massive unemployment situation. But in the past 20 years, every time there's a massive unemployment situation, the government floods the economy with money and sends people checks and puts moratoriums on foreclosures and mortgage payments and everything else. So even during COVID, I mean, did anyone get for you couldn't even get foreclosed on during COVID? It wasn't even possible to get foreclosed on. So like I just don't know, I don't see it happening. I just really don't.

SPEAKER_05 12:55

Right. I agree. I mean I I can't I can't say anything different about it. Um all I know is uh it's it's there was a supply versus demand, and then there was all this other stuff that happened um, you know, in 08. Um it was pretty much bad loans. You know, builders builders are are aware of that now. Builders don't build spec homes like they used to because a lot of those builders got burned.

SPEAKER_06 13:21

Well, the small builders don't, the big ones do, Lenar and and D R. Horton and stuff.

SPEAKER_05 13:25

Correct, but it was the small builders that got were the one trauma. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_06 13:29

The big guys have good balance sheets to be able to do that kind of stuff. So um, yeah, so anyway, I just it's yeah, it's interesting. Uh could something else cause a housing crash besides foreclosures? I mean, I think other 2008, we haven't had a big housing crash in this country. We had a little dip in 2001, I think, because of the dot-com bust. Um, maybe prices went down 10% or something in some of the major markets. But um, and we could see something like that, and I think we probably are seeing things like that. It'll look more like 2001, I think, than it would look like 2008.

SPEAKER_05 13:58

Are we gonna see an AI bust then too? Like, you know, we've always seen these big things that happen and in in the industry, and we kind of we just get a bust.

SPEAKER_06 14:07

I mean, well, I think that's it's funny because I all these YouTube videos for the last year are like 95% of white-collar jobs are gonna be gone in six months. And I'm like, Well, that was nine months ago. Like, they're still on YouTube, you can go look at them. Like, how many white-collar jobs have been lost from the AI?

SPEAKER_05 14:23

I think they're scaring us, but I think there's still everybody wants a human connection, and we're even seeing that in our business too, right? Where we don't even let the our AI set the appointment, we just set the appointment and we let them know that this is the AI person, yeah, and they're more willing to talk now because we're we're honest with them.

SPEAKER_06 14:40

I mean, we're super excited about AI too and we're using it in the business, but we have not, you know, how many people have we replaced with AI? I'd say zero, you know, and um I think that's probably you know, in major corporations, maybe they could replace customer service departments with AI or 50% of them or something like that. Yeah, but I don't this whole idea that all the white-collar jobs are gonna disappear in six months is a little ridiculous. Um, maybe in five years, maybe or ten years.

SPEAKER_05 15:05

Well, okay, so go back. Let's even go back to the um remember when the fast food places are like, oh, you're gonna make twenty dollars an hour, that's great, but because now we're gonna be ran by um by computers, you know, you can go up to never talk to anybody at McDonald's anymore. Go to the airport, you know, you push all these little buttons and you get the order.

SPEAKER_06 15:23

How long has that technology? So that's I look at that like we've had technology to automate these things for decades, and they haven't been automated. Yeah. So, like, just because the technology exists doesn't mean it's gonna happen. Um, because we've had the ability, like McDonald's could have automated ordering 20 years ago, you know, they didn't there's not some new technology that came out to do that. Um, and even like the self-service grocery um checkout things. I remember doing that in 2001.

SPEAKER_05 15:50

We had a store in Fargo North Dakota that they're having problems with that now, too, because people are ripping everybody off.

SPEAKER_06 15:56

Yeah, so like that technology's been around for 20 years. Like, if you go to a grocery store, you still have a lot of clerks checking people out. Yeah, 25 years later.

SPEAKER_05 16:06

I still think there's still a human interaction that still has to be.

SPEAKER_06 16:10

Yeah, so this stuff is always like it happens slower and more transitionally than people think. Um, I just remember so many times in the last 20 years where we heard these things like satellite radio is gonna replace all radio and radio's gonna die, and satellite radio is gonna be everywhere. And and now, you know, what's what's the truth now? Like satellite radio is very niche, and regular radio is still the big thing. Nothing really changed. So new technologies don't always blow up. I think we just think of the iPhone and how it took over the world, but that's not always what happens.

SPEAKER_05 16:42

I mean, everybody has a phone now.

SPEAKER_06 16:44

I mean, that that was an iPhone did blow up, and the smartphone.

SPEAKER_05 16:47

And then on that case, too, is it's even third world countries have that. There's because I mean the technology has made other countries that wouldn't have never had that.

SPEAKER_06 16:57

Yeah, it's very clear to me that AI is going, is is doing following the path of the smartphone as far as use how much it's being used. What's not clear to me is this whole idea of it replacing people. Um, that is not clear at all to me as how it's gonna, you know, replace people. I haven't seen it happen.

SPEAKER_05 17:16

I think if anything adds to having that person having more knowledge to their own.

SPEAKER_06 17:20

I think it just makes people more productive. One person can just do more, you know.

SPEAKER_05 17:24

Because you still need that human to go yay or nay, or it's not just, you know, if everything's to the left, you go right. If everything's to the right, you go left.

SPEAKER_06 17:32

If half of the things it's kind of like, well, when we got power tools, did all did all the construction workers lose all their jobs when that happened? I don't think so. You know?

SPEAKER_05 17:41

Well, true. It just made it again, it just made it your job easier.

SPEAKER_06 17:46

Yeah. You know, I guess another thing would be like when we got better machinery for farming, over a long period of time, the amount of farmers required to farm land declined. I think it's like 99% less than it was, you know, 200 years ago. That's over a really long period of time.

SPEAKER_05 18:01

And well, what what one farmer fed their family, now one farmer feeds you know, a hundred thousand families.

SPEAKER_06 18:07

Yeah, or more, yeah. I mean I'm just using I have no idea, but so I mean, we have some examples to look at. I just I feel like, and maybe it's just for clickbait headlines that these people say that everyone's gonna lose their job in six months.

SPEAKER_05 18:18

I'm like, I that's what it is, too. It's kind of like that.

SPEAKER_06 18:20

I saw the same thing as this foreclosure thing. I'm like, I don't agree, I don't think so.

SPEAKER_05 18:24

Uh Jaden, everything's negative, everything is negative, and that's how they get people, that's how they get people to watch the everything. Um, and or maybe we should be negative about our podcast. Doom and gloom. Yeah. Follow-up.

SPEAKER_06 18:35

What I would keep an eye on, though, as far as this whole idea of the AI replacing people and that destroying the economy, I would watch, if you think about it, like where would you see that happen first? Where would that adoption happen first? It's gonna happen in the companies that are closest to AI. Well, who's that? It's the companies that are developing AI. So Amazon is very closely linked to AI. They're partnered with Anthropic, they host Anthropic stuff, they're a technology company, they're investing heavily in AI, and Meta also. So if you look at like Meta and Amazon, and maybe Google to some extent, and Microsoft, if they start laying off massive amounts of people, and they might, then that would be okay. That's something to watch and keep an eye on because they'll be the first adopters of it.

SPEAKER_05 19:20

That's true too. Yeah.

SPEAKER_06 19:21

And Amazon, I would watch Amazon employs over a million people, and they employ a lot of people in warehouses, they employ a lot of white-collar people, management, they also engineers, software engineers, and then warehouse people and drivers and stuff.

SPEAKER_05 19:34

How many jobs right now that Amazon okay? Let's just say there's a thousand people they employed. How many people without AI would they employ right now if we didn't have AI?

SPEAKER_06 19:44

And that's all the machinery from picking the stuff to well, so they if you there are some studies on Amazon, how many people they require to operate one of their warehouses. And they have this like chart. There's actually, we should look look at this. There's a chart online that shows over the years, last 10 years, how many people per warehouse is required per volume that they can ship. And the amount of people per volume has gone down drastically. It's like down 90% in like the last 10 or 15 years. That's because they've you know systematized, they've got good logistics, software, good machines, and then they're also automating and using robots in in their warehouses. But they've been doing that for 15 years, right? That's not new. So they'll just keep doing that, they'll add AI into the mix, and you'll keep on seeing more and more volume out of Amazon warehouses with fewer and fewer people. But it's just it's an incremental overtime thing, like you know, maybe it's five or ten percent a year. It's not not everybody loses their job tomorrow. That's not how it seems to work, you know.

SPEAKER_05 20:39

Well, that's the way they're making it sound. So YouTube definitely makes it sound. So when um you know how we talk about the uh dot-com bust, who who lost and who won on the dot-com bust? Because I'm trying to figure out what I'm trying to do is put the scenario to the AI bust, you know, like what you were just talking about. So who won and who lost?

SPEAKER_06 21:02

Well, I think the winners of dot-com eventually Amazon eventually won, but Amazon's stock went down like 99% during the dot-com bust, and they almost went out of out of business, I think. But they survived and became a really big company many, many years later. Um, Intel did really well throughout the whole thing and beyond. Um, so some of the hardware Microsoft.

SPEAKER_05 21:21

But when we say the dot-com error, is that just because now this is the computer and everybody's it's a race to be on, you know, have a presence on the computer? Or I mean I I guess I'm not understanding what the dot-com era was.

SPEAKER_06 21:34

I just the dot com era was we had computers already. We had we had computers in the 80s, yeah. In the 90s we got like Windows and PCs and better computers, and then the 90s we started getting internet access. And then everybody in the early 90s, the internet was like AI is now. It's like, holy cow, this is incredible, but it's like barely usable. You know, it's like you can see the potential for this, but it's like barely functional. Yep. That's what the internet was in like early the early nine, and we had it in the early nineties, and I think people could see the potential for it. So Wall Street and all these businesses and investors went nuts with it, and through the nineties they set Said, well, let's put fiber everywhere, fiber internet everywhere. The whole country got like fiber internet. And that was a big part of the dot-com bust was they put all this fiber down, and then no one used it, and like it didn't get connected to anything. They didn't know used it. So all these companies like spent all this bunch of put the fiber down and went on to business.

SPEAKER_05 22:29

Somebody sold the horse before the cart or the cart before the horse?

SPEAKER_06 22:33

Yeah, so like fiber was like they call it a dark fiber, like 99% of it was dark and wasn't being used for anything. And then um there was that, and then there was all these dot-com companies like um Pets.com and whatever. Pets.com is one of the famous ones, but like uh oh, Mark Cuban's company, broadcast.com, he sold for like a ridiculous amount of money.

SPEAKER_05 22:54

Yeah, that's just about uh Mavericks, I think.

SPEAKER_06 22:56

It folded like you know, two years later, it was out of business, but he you know he got his paycheck before it went out of business.

SPEAKER_05 23:02

Um, so there's a lot of stuff like that that was going on, and then so it's when if everybody put money into something because they knew it was the it was the biggest thing, and then so it it took off for people.

SPEAKER_06 23:13

People didn't know how, like, who was gonna win? They didn't know, so like just throw money at everything. And then if you look at like, well, who actually won out of all that? It was just a couple companies that won, you know, like Intel did well, Microsoft eventually did well, did well throughout the whole thing, pretty much. Um, Cisco survived, and uh Amazon eventually did well. And Google actually came after the dot-com. That was later, really.

SPEAKER_05 23:35

And then how did the general um people, general public, take advantage of that dot-com era? I know that was uh there was an era where everybody was buying up everything, and you know, like somebody was trying to buy up uh that got to Pepsi.com first, and then all these new regulations came across. Like you can't just have buy that if you had nothing to do with it. So then you had to prove that you had to have a relationship.

SPEAKER_06 23:58

I think the average person didn't make any money from the internet. I I didn't make any money off, and I was building websites and all kinds of stuff on the internet. I didn't make any money from the internet, so I didn't know how to. Um, and I don't think many people did, you know. Right.

SPEAKER_05 24:11

I was just kind of curious and how they're relating because again, you know, everybody wants to attach it to something else, right? Um or like what we were talking about. Yeah, related to something else.

SPEAKER_06 24:21

Yeah, like, oh, it's gonna happen again, and I'm like, well, yeah, well, there like there's gonna be there's the AI bubble and the AI crash because there was a dot, it's just like the housing thing. It's like because something happened with technology before, that's gonna happen again just like that. It's completely different this time. The companies that are doing AI are huge companies that make a ton of money, and the stocks are valued fairly based on their earnings. Like that is looks nothing like what was happening in 1998, 1999. Um, you had companies that made no money, had no revenue, and lost money and were being valued at billions of dollars or hundreds of millions of dollars, and some of them had no prospects of making any money.

SPEAKER_05 24:56

Right.

SPEAKER_06 24:57

So, like, how do you how is that the same thing? That doesn't that's not even close to the same thing. So the companies now are actually making a lot of money. Um I think the risk is the risk is not so much that those companies that are in AI are are at risk, because I don't think they are at all. I think they're just gonna print more and more money every year. The risk is will they replace a lot of people with their jobs and how fast will that happen? And you know, last year it was like everybody's saying it's gonna happen very soon. And um I don't, I'm not, I guess I haven't seen it. I mean, I I know Meta's talk about doing some layoffs, uh, Microsoft will probably do some layoffs, and Amazon probably will this year too, but is it really is it because of AI or is it because they had too many people working there?

SPEAKER_05 25:39

Right. You don't know, you don't know if it's being controlled by AI or they were they were overstaffed from COVID.

SPEAKER_06 25:44

You know, they still are overstaffed from COVID. So that's what a lot of that is.

SPEAKER_05 25:49

Hey, um our listeners out there, this is like literally one of those times where we kind of veer off. We're kind of talking about the stuff, but we're also veering off a little bit too. So um, I I do appreciate you staying here and listening with us because I don't know, sometimes it some of the stuff that we talk about is is pretty interesting. Uh Brady, how much time do we have left on uh this video? Let's go a little bit longer.

SPEAKER_06 26:13

Let's he's got some more stuff to talk about. I think that's good.

SPEAKER_05 26:16

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 26:18

So if we follow a similar trajectory, maybe we're gonna get a housing market crash and home prices are gonna bottom out in 2034. I mean, that's at least how it played out last time. And it took a great financial crisis to make it happen. So listen, I just I rest my case. Home prices are up, supply is down. I do not see a flood of inventory coming online anytime soon. Okay, so you have Fannie Mae predicting that home prices are gonna increase by 1.3% in 2026. Reuters economist poll says 1.8% home price growth. National Association of Realtors says 2-3% growth. And in my opinion, as I said late in 2025, 2026 is probably gonna be a boring year, close to flat. So what I'm saying is basically no-house-to-market crash again. Now, let's take a look at mortgage interest rates. This is a five-year chart coming from the Federal Reserve. It shows the average interest rate on a 30-year fix in the US. And as you can see, we're stalling around the 6% mark. And why is this happening? It's because mortgage interest rates are correlated to the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury notes. So this is a five-year chart. Back when the interest rate on the 10-year note was so low, and we're talking around 1.4%, we had mortgage interest rates to 3%. Now that the 10-year note is around 4.2%, we have mortgage interest rates around 6%. Now, I want to point this out to you. You see this little tick up, okay? That's because of the conflict that's going on right now. Interest rates on the 10-year notes went higher. That's because of rising inflation expectations. That's due to higher oil prices. So you see how all of this is connected. If you're gonna lend money to the US government, like a 10-year note, and you expect the rate of inflation to increase, then you're gonna want to be compensated at higher interest rates. And that's what we're seeing. So the interest rate on a 10-year note goes up, and that makes mortgage interest rates go up, or at least stop going down. But yeah, that's what's happening right now. And if the war ends and oil prices come down, then you're gonna see mortgage interest rates go down. Good and stop. So believe it or not, the war.

SPEAKER_06 28:38

Um, yeah, my main comment on this one was I remember back in 2022 when they're they started raising rates, everybody in the real estate world, and this kind of like kind of pointing out how much noise there is in media in general. You know, there's this, you know, foreclosure crash and prices are, you know, all this not happening, you know, and AI bubble crash, not happening. It's not true. And then in 2022, it was um, oh, rates are going up, but it's gonna be very temporary and doesn't matter, it's gonna they're gonna come right back down again. So it was that's when you heard all the realtors saying date the bury the house, date the rate. And I'm like, rates are not coming back down again, they're not they're gonna stay up for a while. But this is what was in the media, 2022 and 2023 is what you heard constantly. And uh obviously what's happened, they've stayed at six percent for four years, and they're still at six percent. So be careful what you listen to.

SPEAKER_05 29:31

Well, I think that that also comes back into um that I'm hearing, and I think we've heard didn't we hear this on another podcast? Listen to your area around you. You can't necessarily always go with like the big picture, um, because sometimes markets around you are are are flourishing. So you gotta know your market also.

SPEAKER_06 29:55

Oh yeah, that's for sure. Yeah, in this case, mortgage rates are national, so well, you're right.

SPEAKER_05 30:00

You're you're right on that. I'm just talking about uh, you know, the the prices and just areas and and where things are going, yeah, not moving, where things are moving.

SPEAKER_06 30:08

I mean, everybody was expecting mortgage rates to come down. Well, I mean, a lot of most people were thinking last year they'd come down a little bit. And I guess they they did kind of inch down last year, then this year that it was like, okay, they're for sure gonna come down you know half point this year because inflation's coming down and getting back in check. And I was thinking the same thing, inflation's kind of back in line again. Um, and it was starting to come down, but then we had this war, and now it's inflation might go back up again. So now it's like, well, we might have to do it.

SPEAKER_05 30:34

Isn't war good for I mean, I hate to say it that way, and you know where I stand on this.

SPEAKER_06 30:38

It's uh mortgage rates basically tied to inflation. So if we have high inflation, no matter what's causing it, um, mortgage rates aren't gonna go down. Okay. So if if something war causes inflation frequently, right? Um, if we get, you know, if oil drops in price and we have if we had mass layoffs, inflation would go down. I'm not saying that we should have mass layoffs, but inflation would go down and mortgage rates would go down. So this is actually an indication that we're not having mass layoffs. Obviously, we wouldn't have high mortgage rates and high inflation still. So anyway, let's let's roll some more, see what else he's got to say.

SPEAKER_02 31:12

That's happening right now. It's affecting millions of Americans that want to buy a home because your mortgage interest rates is actually a big part of the home buying equation, of course. And you know what? I just want to add that it's not affecting just home buying because it's affecting refinancing as well. Because if you refinance to lower mortgage interest rates, of course, that can save you a lot of money on your monthly payments. And in terms of the mortgage interest rates, we were headed in the right direction, but that came to a hard stop and it reversed over the past few months.

SPEAKER_01 31:43

Let's jump forward maybe a minute and see what else is going to say.

SPEAKER_02 31:50

Total payments for owning a home has gone up over the past few years. This is a 10-year chart. So notice how it really accelerated after the pandemic, obviously, because of all the money printing and inflation. Okay, so this is the total average payments, right? But this, like this line that I've circled in red, is how much property insurance has gone up, and we are seeing no relief. And the next one I just circled is property taxes. Since 2019, insurance costs are up 72%, and property taxes are up 31%.

SPEAKER_05 32:24

Stop it right now.

SPEAKER_02 32:25

So listen, I want you to think about it.

SPEAKER_05 32:27

Um, I I I think this is pretty much and but I guess we always forget about this that the insurance can affect you getting the house.

SPEAKER_06 32:38

Oh, yeah, I mean insurance prices have have gone up incredibly in the last few years.

SPEAKER_05 32:44

I think we've actually had a couple down in Florida that didn't go through because then they wouldn't they weren't able to find insurance on the property.

SPEAKER_06 32:51

Yeah, especially in Florida. Certain areas of Florida have a it's funny where I live, my insurance is very reasonable where I live, but I'm inland ways.

unknown 32:57

Right.

SPEAKER_06 32:58

Um, it's actually lower than my Minnesota house was. But if you're in a lower area or by the coast or in an old house, it's pretty expensive. But yeah, so this shows the insurance costs going way up, the taxes going way up because values went way up. Uh, and then what this doesn't show actually is um maintenance and repair costs going way up. I mean, maintenance and repairs have also doubled and tripled in the last five years. And so the cost of owning a home has gotten very high. It really has. Yeah, and that's it's not just the mortgage payment, not just the interest.

SPEAKER_05 33:28

Yeah.

unknown 33:29

Right.

SPEAKER_05 33:29

And I think that's what everybody keeps forgetting. Like, how much higher can it go with how you know, and everything has gone higher, but everybody's pay hasn't gone higher yet. So I think that's where we're we're gonna have to figure out.

SPEAKER_06 33:40

That's what happened, that's what money printing does. Money printing just makes everything more expensive, and it doesn't, it makes your paycheck worth less. Yep. But the government's gonna keep money pr printing money, so right.

SPEAKER_05 33:51

Well, Jaden, uh, thank you again for um that was pretty fun. Yeah, I like I like doing those um like that. Uh I think we're gonna do a couple more next week too. Um on the deck. Hey guys, if you guys like listen to this, um I'll make sure that Brady puts in the original um video on there. If you guys just want to watch the video, maybe not us too, because I know we like to talk. Um, but we like to comment on it. So if you if you don't want to listen to us, or maybe you want to listen to us first and then listen to the whole video. Because the video is really only eight minutes long. We just made it a lot longer by by talking about it. So um you got anything else to say, Jaden?

SPEAKER_06 34:33

Nothing else, nope.

SPEAKER_05 34:34

All right. Hey guys, uh just remember um we made the mistakes. So you don't have to. Thanks, guys.